thursdaynightpowerballnumbers| Chang 'an Futures Zhang Chen: The game between weak demand and low inventory remains unchanged, and methanol is operating in shock

Intro: Last week, the main contract of methanol futures rose to a high of 2693 yuan / ton on Monday and then pulled back continuously.Thurs...

Last week, the main contract of methanol futures rose to a high of 2693 yuan / ton on Monday and then pulled back continuously.ThursdaynightpowerballnumbersThe weekly line of the main contract closed down 55 yuan / ton or 2.Thursdaynightpowerballnumbers.07%. The trend of the spot market is divergent. At the beginning of the week, due to the pull of the futures market and the limited available resources in East China, the price in Taicang in East China rose to more than 3000 yuan / ton, and the basis spread widened to more than 300 yuan / ton. After that, the price fell rapidly, the basis narrowed to less than 200 yuan / ton, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches of the northwest region was not high, coupled with the influence of supply-end restart devices, prices were relatively weak, and prices in Inner Mongolia continued to fall. The price difference between the port and the mainland is large, and the arbitrage window opens. As of May 24, the median price of methanol in the eastern China market was 2795 yuan / ton, down 140 yuan / ton from the previous month, 2695 yuan / ton in the South China market, down 60 yuan / ton from the previous month, and 2250 yuan / ton in the northwest market, down 40 yuan / ton from the previous month. The median price in the southern Shandong market was 2500 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton.

First, supply: the devices are returning one after another, and the supply support is weakening.

In the week of May 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants was 79.Thursdaynightpowerballnumbers.26%, 2.89% higher than the previous week, 8.92% higher than the same period last year; domestic weekly methanol production was 1.6604 million tons, an increase of 149000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 9.86%, and an increase of 60700 tons, or 3.78%, over the previous week. During the last statistical period, five sets of devices, such as Baotou and Huayi in Guangxi, were restarted, and devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi and Shanghai Huayi were overhauled, and the overall recovery was greater than the loss, so the output rebounded somewhat. Although the current capacity utilization rate of the equipment is at a medium to high level in the same period, due to the problem of capacity base, the output is still relatively high, so the supply support is general.

thursdaynightpowerballnumbers| Chang 'an Futures Zhang Chen: The game between weak demand and low inventory remains unchanged, and methanol is operating in shock

The operating rate of overseas installations is 60.51%, down 1.06% from the previous month, and is currently at a low level in the same period. The import supplement of the port in the later period is still not optimistic. According to Longzhong information, the two sets of ZPC devices in Iran have been fully stopped, Brunei BMC has stopped again, and Malaysia oil equipment has been restarted. International methanol prices are mixed. The price of CFR in China's main port fell back to US $302.5 / ton, which translates to about 2712 yuan / ton in import price. Due to rising prices in coastal areas, methanol import profits improved.

Last week, the market turnover was not good, downstream resistance to the high-priced supply of goods is strong, procurement is relatively cautious. In terms of units, the operating rate of most of the upstream and downstream varieties of units increased. In the week of May 24, the operating rate of methanol-to-olefin units was 74.02%, up 1.18% from the previous week. Last week, the olefin units in Pucheng and Shenhua, Shaanxi Province were restarted, and the MTO operating rate increased somewhat. However, the above devices are integrated devices, and the actual impact is limited. Due to the high cost and poor profit of some olefin units in East China, most of them have parking and negative operation. It suppresses prices. The average operating rate downstream of PP is 51.93%, which is basically flat compared with the previous month, while the average operating rate downstream of PE is 42.36%, down 1.08% from the previous month. Recently, polyolefin disk prices have risen, but mainly due to real estate policies and market sentiment, the actual demand has not improved much. PP, plastic woven, non-woven, pipe and other terminal performance is mediocre, the downstream market is not willing to purchase high-priced sources of goods, wait-and-see mood is strong, the new order follow-up is limited; PE, the demand for agricultural film is basically over, the operating rate of agricultural film manufacturers continues to decline, pipe and cable performance is also general, the overall terminal demand is not eye-catching performance, demand support is limited.

In the traditional downstream, Celanese and Sinopec Great Wall parking maintenance, acetic acid plant capacity utilization continued to decline; Weifang Xudong plant negative, formaldehyde plant capacity utilization upward, dimethyl ether due to Xinxiang heart-to-heart and Jiujiang heart-to-heart device to start, capacity utilization is higher. From the point of view of the plan, Sinopec Great Wall and Guangxi Huayi are expected to recover this week, offsetting the losses caused by Henan Shunda's planned overhaul, the utilization rate of acetic acid plant capacity will go up, Henan Lankao plans to reduce negative, formaldehyde demand will decline, and in terms of dimethyl ether, Qianjiang Jinhua run store driving plan. According to Longzhong statistics, in the week of May 24, the operating rate of formaldehyde plant was 66.09%, up 0.67% from the previous month; the operating rate of acetic acid plant was 80.19%, down 6.25% from the previous month; and the operating rate of dimethyl ether plant was 9.66%, up 1.61% from the previous month.

Recently, the price of methanol continues to rise, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the profitability of the current downstream unit is relatively poor, and the negative reduction or parking action of the follow-up unit can not be ruled out. During the last statistical period, the gross profit of the methanol-to-olefin plant in East China was-2381 yuan / ton. At present, the loss range of the methanol-to-olefin plant far exceeds that of it.ThursdaynightpowerballnumbersOther method devices do not rule out the possibility that the operating rate of other systems can be uplink to replace MTO supply. The gross profit of formaldehyde unit is-28.5 yuan / ton, the change is limited, the gross profit of dimethyl ether unit is 181.38 yuan / ton, and that of acetic acid plant is 303 yuan / ton. with the downward price of methanol, the profit is enlarged.

Inventory: Port inventory is still low

In the week of May 24th, the social inventory of methanol was 977600 tons, an increase of 38800 tons over the previous month. Both ports and production enterprises were burdened with storage, but the overall social inventory was still low in the same period.

In the week of May 24th, methanol port inventory was 588200 tons, up 29500 tons from the previous month, down 196200 tons from the same period last year. The last phase of methanol port arrival volume of 260500 tons, of which dominant 189800 tons, East China domestic trade and foreign ships to the port concentrated, coupled with part of the external methanol olefin plant parking, East China port accumulation of 39000 tons, South China in part of the entrepot cargo loading port and rigid demand consumption of the warehouse, the port inventory is still low, supporting prices in the region, Longzhong expects methanol arrival volume of about 290700 tons this week Among them, the dominant quantity is mainly, coupled with the opening of the arbitrage window between the mainland and the port, it is expected that the port will be burdened.

The inventory of methanol production enterprises in the plant was 389400 tons, an increase of 9300 tons over the previous month, or 2.45%. This is mainly due to the restart of some units in northwest Inner Mongolia, the recovery of supply, the weak gas purchase downstream and the poor overall shipment of manufacturers. This situation is expected to continue this week, and production enterprises will continue to accumulate storage slightly.

Methanol downstream manufacturers inventory 165900 tons, month-on-month increase of 12600 tons, downstream inventory is still in the history of the same period of medium-high level, the desire to replenish the stock is not urgent.

At present, the three methanol production methods are profitable, and the profits of coal-making plants have shrunk due to the rise in coal prices.

Last week, thermal coal prices at ports and pits collectively rose. Affected by the lockdown, the volume of port transfers has dropped, and the Bohai Rim ports have continued to accumulate warehouses. Traders are generally enthusiastic about shipping and are still willing to hold prices. Some traders are optimistic about future demand and are reluctant to sell goods. Downstream inquiries are generally and prices are significantly lowered. Actual transactions are limited; the trading atmosphere in the producing areas has warmed up, and the latest Shenhua purchased prices continue to increase, boosting market sentiment. Market activity has begun to increase, and coal prices at pits have increased frequently. In terms of supply, the Steel Union calculated that the capacity utilization rate of 462 mines across the country last week was 91.4%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. The average daily output was 5.492 million tons, down 20,000 tons month-on-month. Near the end of the month, the monthly sales of coal mines increased. In addition, some coal mines have moved and changed, supply has shrunk slightly, and safety supervision in production areas is still strict, making it difficult to increase coal supply significantly. On the demand side, temperatures in the northern part of the country have risen and precipitation has occurred frequently in the southern part of the country. Last week, the daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces increased, inventories fell slightly, and the number of days available in inventory dropped. However, the overall inventory is still at a high level and has not yet fully entered the peak consumption season. There is also a long-term cooperation to ensure coal supply, and power plants have no pressure to replenish their warehouses, so procurement enthusiasm is low. In addition, precipitation is still occurring in South China, Jiangnan, Southwest and other places, and the water supply situation of hydropower stations has improved. It is expected that hydropower will make some efforts during the peak season; Non-electricity demand is relatively stable, chemical product start-ups remain high, and cement clinker production capacity utilization continues to increase, but still lags behind the same period in previous years. In terms of imports, due to the impact of high temperature weather, the international coal market demand continues to improve. Procurement demand in Asia has increased. Countries such as India and Vietnam have increased procurement efforts. Due to precipitation in Indonesia, coal production and transportation have been affected to a certain extent, so international coal prices are relatively firm and have little advantage. To sum up, the current demand in the coal market has not improved substantially, but the market outlook is about to enter the peak consumption season, and demand has not yet been completely falsified. In addition, supply has shrunk at the end of the month, and support below coal prices still exists. Even if there is a correction, there is also relatively limited space below coal prices.


Recently, the number of methanol recovery units has increased, and the operating rate has risen again; demand has weakened, and the downstream of the main producing area is strongly resistant to high-priced sources of goods. Due to profit reasons, the downstream negative feedback logic is still in place; in terms of cost, as the price of methanol falls, the profits of various manufacturing units have shrunk. From the perspective of coal, the main raw material, coal prices have been relatively firm due to the contraction of supply at the end of the month and expectations of peak season, and cost support has strengthened; In terms of inventory, ports and manufacturers are both accumulating stocks. However, inventories in East China are still low and still provide market support. At present, the main game for methanol still comes from the game between the current weak demand and low stocks in major consumption regions and high sentiment for industrial products. It is recommended to treat it with a shock mentality for the time being, with the range of 2,580 - 2,640 yuan/ton. For reference only.

Chang 'an Futures: Zhang Chen

May 27, 2024

Zhang Chen is a researcher in coal chemical industry at Chang 'an Futures. He has systematic theoretical study experience in coal and related industries. Since entering the futures market, he has been mainly responsible for the research of thermal coal and coal chemical-related varieties. He is good at analyzing market trends from policy orientation and fundamentals., has rich professional knowledge and strong logical analysis capabilities.